(Bear in mind, the only movies here that I’ve seen were The Wrestler, The Dark Knight and Tropic Thunder. Everything else is based on my assumptions on how the academy will vote, what I’ve heard from others, or just arbitrary decisions. My picks are in bold.)

Best Picture – I’ve gotta say, I’m not too impressed with this crop of nominees. The only one I really want to see is Frost/Nixon, but this pretty much follows the standard formula for best picture nominees. It’s a veritable Breakfast Club of film selections.

• The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - This is the obligatory big name/big budget selection (which I thought would have gone to The Dark Knight).  I’ve heard mixed things about it, and I honestly spent about a week thinking that it had won the Golden Globe. I think it could win on an argument of cinematography/technology–in other words the best made movie–but I don’t know if that’s enough to beat the others.
• Frost/Nixon – This is the obligatory political movie. As a history nerd, this is the only one of the bunch I really have any interest in seeing. There could be some Bush-backlash votes for it, or votes for its character-driven nature, but I don’t think that’s going to push it into the win.
• Milk – This is the obligatory issues movie. It’s also my pick for the winner. Whereas Frost/Nixon might benefit from Bush-backlash, Milk could get the Obama-bump, as well as the much more powerful Prop 8 backlash. I think the voters are going to try to send a message by voting for it, and it’ll probably win on that strength.
• The Reader – This is the obligatory historical pick. I honestly know next to nothing about this movie, but I feel like it was more a prestige pick than anything else. I think that with the strong “personalities” of the other movies, this is going to be seen as more of “just another WWII movie,” and will probably finish pretty low in the final polling.
• Slumdog Millionaire – This is the obligatory indie pick, which did actually win the Golden Globe (an award voted on by the Hollywood Foreign Press, I should add). It’ll get a lot of votes, and probably could have won in another year, but I just don’t see it happening here.

Best Director – Not surprisingly, the directors of the best picture nominees all got nominated. But, I don’t think the votes are going to come down the same way. I think I might have picked this analogy up from The (aforementioned) Movie Blog, but the coach of the year doesn’t always win the super bowl.

• David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – Remember when I said that Benjamin Button might win on the basis of being the best made movie? Consider this a consolation prize.
• Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
• Gus Van Sant, Milk – He’s got a pretty good shot too, but I think that the same people that pick Milk for best picture are going to attribute it more to Sean Penn than Van Sant.
• Stephen Daldry, The Reader
• Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor – This is really a two horse race between Penn and Rourke. Fortunately, both of these guys are big enough assholes that it won’t come down to a popularity contest.

• Richard Jenkins, The Visitor – I’ve never even heard of this movie, or this actor. Good for him though. Moving on…
• Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon – There’s usually a boost for playing historical figures, especially someone like Nixon, but there’s also a downside of having a definite reference point to compare the actor too. This raises questions about what merits you’re supposed to base your vote on, and when Rourke and Penn are both nominated, why bother thinking that much?
• Sean Penn, Milk -  See the other guy for my rationale.
• Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – When you’re Brad Pitt, just getting nominated is a pretty good feeling. I feel like most of the praise he got was based on the technology used to change his age, so probably no statue.
• Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler – Rourke is going to beat Penn. And he had damn-well better thank Darren Aronofsky, because this whole movie was owned by Rourke. Again, there’s some bias in that this is the only performance I’ve seen, but I still feel as if a lot of the praise for Penn is coming off the Prop 8 thing, which probably won’t overcome the real-life comparisons and high praise handed to Mickey Rourke.

Best Actress – I always feel kind of bad about the Best Actress category. There really just aren’t that many good lead actress roles out there, so it always comes across feeling like more of a “best supporting” category.

• Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married – She’s been getting a lot of buzz, but I don’t think the academy is going to be ready to hand a statue to the star of The Princess Diaries just yet. Give her another good role or two.
• Angelina Jolie, Changeling – Call me shallow, but I really just don’t think of her as being that good of an actress. Props for the nomination, but it’s not happening.
• Melissa Leo, Frozen River – Again, no clue about the movie or actress. Moving on…
• Meryl Streep, Doubt – It’s another tribute to the lack of quality female lead roles that Meryl Streep seems to get nominated every year (She’s already won a supporting and a lead, and been nominated a total of 15 times including this year). I don’t mean that as a knock against her in any way, as she could very well win the award this year too. But, she did also appear in Momma Mia! this year.
• Kate Winslet, The Reader – Speaking of multiple nominations, Winslet has six nominations (including this one) without a win. If you break this down to Winslet vs. Streep, which some voters may well do (though Hathaway could be in the mix), the tiebreaker may well be that Winslet was also in Revolutionary Road. She needs to thank somebody for not making her run against herself.

Best Supporting Actor – You know, I’m still not sure how you define “supporting Actor,” but I’ve gotta say, this is probably the most interesting category of the bunch.

• Josh Brolin, Milk – I haven’t heard too much about Brolin in this movie. But given everything I’ve been saying about Prop 8, I don’t see it happening.
• Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder – I want to see him win if only for the acceptance speech, but I think that getting nominated for a role where you’re essentially in blackface is good enough.
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt – Here’s my runner-up pick. I think Hoffman’s one of the best actors out there, but I think he’s already set his own bar a little too high. However, I’m a bit curious why he’s in this category, considering that every piece of footage from Doubt that I’ve seen has him in it, but so be it.
• Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight – You know, I wasn’t going to pick Ledger at first. It seemed a little too trendy, and a little too reliant of the whole “being dead” thing. But looking at the other nominees, I really think he’s the only one who deserves it. He brought a whole new light to the character and blah blah blah, but it really was a great performance.
• Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road – I don’t know who this guy is. Good for him all the same, but moving on…

Best Supporting Actress – I’m making a fully arbitrary pick here. I don’t have much in the way of justifications or thoughts about this category, but I kept it in for the sake of not seeming sexist.

• Amy Adams, Doubt
• Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis, Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler – She was good, but not that good. Plus, she has weird nipples (So much for not seeming sexist).

So yeah, those are my picks for some of the major categories. I thought about giving my thoughts for the screenplays, until I realized that without seeing the movies themselves, or god forbid, reading the screenplays, there really wasn’t any point (plus, I’m lazy). I’ll probably be wrong on most of them, but that’s the fun of the Oscars, right?

Hit the comments if you want to argue with me.